# Gedankenexperiment for Monty HallMay 13, 2015

This post presumes you are familiar with the Monty Hall Problem and the associated post/article.  If not, first read the Monty Hall Problem posting and then come back to this.  Now we can begin…

Lock The Gates!

While ruminating on Monty Hall I came up with this Gedankenexperiment.  It’s doubtful  that what is here is unique/new but here it is anyway.  Enjoy.

First, let’s restate the problem and refresh our memory.

You’re on the Let’s Make A Deal game show. You’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a shiny new car!; behind the other 2 doors are goats (which you don’t want!). You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host (Monty Hall), who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. Monty then says to you, “Do you want to switch and instead pick door No. 2?”

What should you do?

1.  Should you stick with your original choice of door No. 1?

2.  Should you switch to door No. 2?

3.  Or… as a whole lotta people believe, it wouldn’t matter whether you stick with door #1 or whether you switch to door #2. All you know is that one door has the prize and one doesn’t so you would have a 50/50 chance of winning either way. This is the part of the problem we will now focus on.